Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.081352 0.094165 0.108784 0.126794 0.148512 0.174020 0.206487
2025-10-26 0.062694 0.078067 0.097244 0.123245 0.158078 0.203853 0.269780
2025-11-02 0.048734 0.064433 0.085529 0.116588 0.162260 0.228792 0.336630
2025-11-09 0.037960 0.052804 0.074065 0.107721 0.161571 0.247949 0.404976
2025-11-16 0.031751 0.046365 0.068630 0.106503 0.172538 0.289740 0.531264
2025-11-23 0.026839 0.040943 0.063676 0.105023 0.183295 0.336808 0.696725
2025-11-30 0.023360 0.037142 0.060586 0.106116 0.199723 0.403336 0.952257
2025-12-07 0.020450 0.033761 0.057550 0.106681 0.216033 0.479626 1.301184
2025-12-14 0.017586 0.029964 0.053033 0.103272 0.223213 0.540691 1.676945
2025-12-21 0.014592 0.025449 0.046324 0.093647 0.212891 0.552753 1.915680
2025-12-28 0.013056 0.023432 0.044170 0.093613 0.227135 0.646608 2.613486
2026-01-04 0.011971 0.022116 0.043206 0.096187 0.250149 0.788124 3.808547
2026-01-11 0.010864 0.020621 0.041671 0.097264 0.270836 0.946244 5.546680
2026-01-18 0.009891 0.019255 0.040173 0.098125 0.292205 1.134120 8.193003
2026-01-25 0.008866 0.017622 0.037755 0.095815 0.302290 1.288278 11.339570
2026-02-01 0.007851 0.015864 0.034727 0.090932 0.301025 1.389900 14.631843
2026-02-08 0.007247 0.014954 0.033640 0.091712 0.323394 1.664154 22.675424
2026-02-15 0.006690 0.014074 0.032470 0.091939 0.344416 1.973508 35.440580
2026-02-22 0.006273 0.013466 0.031913 0.094108 0.376710 2.439041 61.649432
2026-03-01 0.005876 0.012850 0.031217 0.095635 0.407941 2.982771 109.696139
2026-03-08 0.005400 0.011975 0.029639 0.093474 0.418855 3.376127 172.727591
2026-03-15 0.004800 0.010713 0.026751 0.085539 0.392487 3.318885 201.940469
2026-03-22 0.004511 0.010220 0.026046 0.086016 0.417448 3.965506 380.685618